Amman, Jordan

I never wanted to be in Egypt more than I do right now! History is being made, and I could have gotten on a plane to Cairo this morning and been there to celebrate with my latest host country right now. Hosni Mubarak is out, and Omar Suleiman seems to be, too. The fraudulently elected Parliament has been dissolved. The cabinet has been dismissed.

The regime is half fallen!

But as much as I want to celebrate with the Egyptians, I’m worried. What we basically have in Egypt now is a military coup. Egypt doesn’t have a good history with military coups. Everything hinges now on the limits of Tantawi’s ambitions. Does he think of himself as the next Nasser? Because then things will get ugly fast!

Best case scenario, Egypt goes the way of Turkey: the military takes control for a few months, until a new government can be democratically elected, and then steps aside until democracy is threatened again. But only time will tell.

The regime is only half fallen.

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